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How does Mr. Fisher suggest that you invest for the long run? He suggests that you pick a benchmark and try not to deviate from that benchmark's return "by much more than you are comfortable lagging it". He tells his readers that they must determine whether the market next year is going to be up-a lot, up-a-little, down-a-little, or down-a-lot. Once they have made that decision they then must decide how to allocate their capital. He suggests in the up-a lot, up-a-little, or even down-a-little categories to be 100% in equities.
In my mind that type of guessing is a total waste of time and in my opinion investors would be better served trying to locate good companies selling for less than their intrinsic value rather then trying to guess what the tea leaves are saying and then trying to make asset allocation decision based on them.
December 2006 · Books