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★★★★☆
Learned a lot
I am an individual investor who has read dozens of books on investing, the markets and economics. I have read Ken Fisher's columns in Forbes but I have never acted on his recommendations. Fisher has turned many Wall Street myths on its head. For examples: high PE ratios do not necessarily imply reduced stock returns; one should think about earnings yield rather than PE ratios and plot earnings yield against 10-year bond yields to decide on value; budget surpluses can actually dull stock returns; trade- account- and budget-deficits are all potentially good for the stock market; an inverted yield curve is not necessarily bad for the stock market; the global yield curve is important, etc. The 3rd section is about behavioral finance. A better take on behavioral finance is Beyond Greed and Fear by Shefrin. Fisher talks about the importance of international investing and he does not believe it really matters whether the dollar is strong or weak. He thinks that if you have 10 year time horizon, you should be 100% in equities. He has low regard for gold and commodities. He thinks high oil prices are not necessarily bad. His opinions are backed up with well researched data, with lots of graphs and statistics which is easily understandable even for a no-Math brain like me. I learned so much from this book.
I do have some criticisms. There is a lot of redundant material and some repetition. Editing could have been better. He criticizes Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway for underperforming the S&P in 2003, 2004, and 2005. But Buffett had a fantastic return over the long run. In the appendix of the book, between 1996 and 2006 Fisher's annualized return was 11.5% after fees. From 1995 and 2005 Buffett's average annual gain was more than 18% after taxes. (This does not include 2006 when Berkshire Hathaway had a blockbuster year gaining almost 25%!) Which is why I have 25% of my portfolio in this one stock, violating Ken Fisher's rule of not having more than 5% in one stock.
January 2007 · Books · verified purchase